Origen (002701): Prudent accounting treatment affects current performance and industry integration continues to advance
This report reads: With the continuous integration of two-piece tank production capacity and a slight increase in demand, the overall profitability of the industry will gradually approach the inflection point; the layout of new customers will resolve the risk of a single large customer and contribute new revenue growth points for the company.
Investment points: Maintain target price of RMB 6 and upgrade to overweight rating.
With the continuous improvement of industry capacity and adjustment of product structure, it is expected that profitability will return to an equilibrium level, and the two-piece can industry will be integrated in the medium and long term.
EPS is 0 in 2021.
54 yuan, maintain the target price of 6 yuan, corresponding to about 13 times in 2019, considering that the current price is more than 15% from the target price space, upgrade to overweight rating.
Revenue growth was in line with expectations, and performance growth exceeded expectations.
The company achieved revenue of 81 in 南京夜网论坛 2018.
7.5 billion, an increase of 11.
35%; Realize attributable net profit 2.
25 trillion, down 67 a year.
98%; realized non-attributable net profit1.
24 ppm, a decrease of 79 per year.
27%, the performance growth exceeded expectations, the reason is that the auditor of the company’s associate, COFCO Packaging, issued a qualified opinion on the evaluation of the financial report. After the company’s assessment, the equity investment was tested for impairment based on practicable principles, which brought non-recurring consequences.
The company achieved revenue of 20 in 2019Q1.
51 trillion, the same increase 2.
9%, achieving attributable net profit 2.
3.7 billion, an increase of 10.
98%, realized non-attributable net profit2.
07 trillion, with an increase of 15.
21%, in line with expectations.
Actively promote the integration of the two-piece can industry, and international brand customers will be added after the completion of the acquisition.
The company’s new two-piece can factory in Xianning is in the ramp-up period of production capacity, and the maximum production capacity will be gradually released.
With the increase of beer canning rate and the rapid growth of new products such as slimming cans, the market demand is in a steady growth stage, which has brought about an improvement in the industry’s operating environment.
With the completion of Bohr’s integration, the company will expand the international brand customer matrix and hopefully make full use of the synergies in procurement, production and sales.
Differentiated services enhance competitive advantage, and new customers are deployed to mitigate the risks of a single large customer.
With the new production capacity gradually put into operation, the company will achieve further expansion of customer coverage.
At present, Red Bull has the highest proportion of the company’s revenue, and it is expected that the risk of a single large customer will be gradually resolved through the release of new customer orders.
Risk reminder: Red Bull’s high proportion of large customers and the uncertainty of agency negotiations